EVENT DOSSIER
As of September 2026, the market size of AI short-form dramas had rapidly expanded to approximately 40 billion yuan. However, there is significant differentiation within the industry: on one hand, many projects have experienced broken capital chains or collapsed profits due to sharply rising production costs; on the other hand, over 90% of AI short-form drama projects have not achieved commercial success and remain in a “supporting” state, lacking actual revenue and sustainable operational capabilities.
AI 短剧市场规模预计 2026 年达 400 亿元，国内首部上星 AI 长剧《后西游记》8 月 31 日上线芒果 TV 并登陆湖南卫视黄金档。该剧开播当日芒果超媒股价封涨停，两日累计涨幅约 44%，总市值一度突破 380 亿元，带动中广天择等概念股跟涨。数据显示，2026 年上半年全网 AI 短剧占比超 74%，用户规模从 1.2 亿跃升至 6 亿以上，头部仿真人剧占比近九成。制作成本大幅压缩，单部成本由约 30 万元降至 3 万元，中长剧降幅约 99%，但行业呈现“九成陪跑”态势，抖音平台仅 1.3% 作品达盈亏线。监管方面，国家广电总局《微短剧发展管理办法》于 9 月 1 日施行，明确 AI 生成内容须添加提示标识并实施分类审查。未来商业化验证与出海增量将是决定行业格局的关键变量。